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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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